From the phone that sits in his pocket, a person can now order almost anything online and have it delivered to his door the next morning. For all of human history, no one on earth had that kind of power, and now, within a single lifetime, every middle-class American has it. Walmart or Amazon or other major e-commerce platforms will bring you whatever you want: a vintage edition of a particular book, a specific article of clothing in a specific size, same-day delivery of kosher pastrami from Costco. Americans are now used to getting what they want, when they want it, with very little delay.
That’s because the interpretation of vast amounts of data has already told retailers that a person is likely to want diapers and baby formula, or the new Winston Churchill biography, or, having bought a new phone, an extra phone charger, already prepositioned in nearby warehouses, just waiting for someone to want it and press “ship.”
As a result, it’s hard for us to understand intuitively why some things take time to manufacture, and why, when we read reports of missile and interceptor stockpiles, the American military, with all its might, can’t just order up another arsenal and have it at the ready. After this spring’s combat operations against Iran, the U.S. has used up a lot of missiles.
Here are some numbers, drawn from analysis published this spring by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In the course of Operation Epic Fury, the United States fired over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles from a prewar inventory of approximately 3,100. Recent annual production is less than 200, and replacement is not projected until late 2030.
Up to 1,430 Patriot interceptors were expended from a prewar inventory of roughly 2,330, at a production rate of 650 per year—half of which go to allied nations.
And 290 of America’s 360 interceptors for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense—the most advanced missile-defense system we field, known as THAAD—were fired. We produce about 96 of these interceptors per year.
Needless to say, there are other things that we need those missiles for. And some strategists believe that China or another adversary might look at the state of American munitions and decide that a window of opportunity has opened up.
How did the most powerful military in the history of the world arrive at this moment? What does the supply chain behind a Patriot missile actually look like, all the way down to the raw materials? And what would serious industrial mobilization require?
These are among the questions that Mosaic‘s editor Jonathan Silver takes up with Ryan McBeth. McBeth spent twenty years in the U.S Army as an infantryman, and is now an intelligence analyst with a popular YouTube channel he uses to explain military affairs to non-specialists. You can learn more about him, and follow his work, at ryanmcbeth.substack.com. In today’s podcast, McBeth explains why he is not quite so worried about the state of the American arsenal.
This episode of The Tikvah Podcast is generously sponsored by Robert and Ilana Saposh. If you are interested in sponsoring an episode of The Tikvah Podcast, we invite you to join the Tikvah Ideas Circle. Visit tikvah.org/circle to learn more and join.